US military draft authorized in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026

Volume

93.9K

24h volume

5.8K

1w volume

20.9K

Open interest

42.0K

Liquidity

24.6K

Liquidity CLOB

24.6K

Start

Mar 13, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 13, 2026

Event ID

263304

Slug

us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "US military draft authorized in 2026?",
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      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no authorization of a US military draft in 2026 at 86.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or executive actions to reinstate conscription since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed December 18, 2025, included Section 535 mandating automatic Selective Service registration for males aged 18-26 starting December 2026 via federal databases—a procedural update to improve compliance, not draft activation, which requires separate legislation and presidential approval. March 2026 media speculation amid US-Iran tensions and White House comments prompted fears, but DoD statements reaffirmed no reinstatement plans, with recruitment meeting needs despite global conflicts. Escalation or troop shortages could shift odds, though historical public opposition and procedural hurdles sustain the strong \"No\" positioning.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-05T14:08:54.365Z"
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