
US recession by end of 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Ticker
us-recession-by-end-of-2026
Volume
278.0K
24h volume
13.6K
1w volume
30.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
42.1K
Liquidity CLOB
42.1K
Start
Sep 29, 2025
End
Jan 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 29, 2025
Event ID
48802
Slug
us-recession-by-end-of-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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}- US recession by end of 2026?Vol 278.0KLiq 42.1KEnd Jan 31, 2027OpenOrder book