US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026

Volume

264.2K

24h volume

93.9K

1w volume

114.6K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

31.7K

Liquidity CLOB

31.7K

Start

Jan 5, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 5, 2026

Event ID

145523

Slug

us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "145523",
  "ticker": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
  "slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
  "title": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-05T20:34:55.233402Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-05T20:34:55.2334Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 31714.3594,
  "volume": 264241.479878,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2026-01-05T17:30:52.32894Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-01T12:13:39.681526Z",
  "competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
  "volume24hr": 93928.31597899996,
  "volume1wk": 114563.88473399995,
  "volume1mo": 149818.47162500006,
  "volume1yr": 262048.9189779999,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 31714.3594,
  "commentCount": 15,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1115288",
      "question": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
      "slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "30135.2194",
      "startDate": "2026-01-05T20:28:12.085746Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.265\", \"0.735\"]",
      "volume": "264241.479878",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-05T17:30:53.264406Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-01T12:16:50.428798Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xbcdf4daa095f28d595dc8a4292002835add7b27996e801084fa3beacd5e32e80",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 264241.479878,
      "liquidityNum": 30135.2194,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-05",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 93928.31597899996,
      "volume1wk": 114563.88473399995,
      "volume1mo": 149818.47162500006,
      "volume1yr": 262048.9189779999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"35782709243786983035694178955131584324960374432781357142873120580614410145650\", \"16507531654323613440839711226389584097745237130431039493320761537250304112351\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 93928.31597899996,
      "volume1wkClob": 114563.88473399995,
      "volume1moClob": 149818.47162500006,
      "volume1yrClob": 262048.9189779999,
      "volumeClob": 264241.479878,
      "liquidityClob": 30135.2194,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-05T20:27:49Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "53561",
          "conditionId": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 5,
          "startDate": "2026-01-05",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.04,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.03,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.28,
      "bestBid": 0.26,
      "bestAsk": 0.27,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-05T20:27:18.702776Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.176417Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:05:42.017208Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false
}