
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026
Volume
264.2K
24h volume
93.9K
1w volume
114.6K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
31.7K
Liquidity CLOB
31.7K
Start
Jan 5, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 5, 2026
Event ID
145523
Slug
us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "145523",
"ticker": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
"slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
"title": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-05T20:34:55.233402Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-05T20:34:55.2334Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 31714.3594,
"volume": 264241.479878,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-01-05T17:30:52.32894Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T12:13:39.681526Z",
"competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
"volume24hr": 93928.31597899996,
"volume1wk": 114563.88473399995,
"volume1mo": 149818.47162500006,
"volume1yr": 262048.9189779999,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 31714.3594,
"commentCount": 15,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1115288",
"question": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
"slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "30135.2194",
"startDate": "2026-01-05T20:28:12.085746Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.265\", \"0.735\"]",
"volume": "264241.479878",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-05T17:30:53.264406Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T12:16:50.428798Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xbcdf4daa095f28d595dc8a4292002835add7b27996e801084fa3beacd5e32e80",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 264241.479878,
"liquidityNum": 30135.2194,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 93928.31597899996,
"volume1wk": 114563.88473399995,
"volume1mo": 149818.47162500006,
"volume1yr": 262048.9189779999,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"35782709243786983035694178955131584324960374432781357142873120580614410145650\", \"16507531654323613440839711226389584097745237130431039493320761537250304112351\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 93928.31597899996,
"volume1wkClob": 114563.88473399995,
"volume1moClob": 149818.47162500006,
"volume1yrClob": 262048.9189779999,
"volumeClob": 264241.479878,
"liquidityClob": 30135.2194,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-05T20:27:49Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "53561",
"conditionId": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-01-05",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.04,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.03,
"lastTradePrice": 0.28,
"bestBid": 0.26,
"bestAsk": 0.27,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-05T20:27:18.702776Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
"slug": "iran",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.176417Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:05:42.017208Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Vol 264.2KLiq 30.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book