
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7
Volume
133.4K
24h volume
119.8K
1w volume
119.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
15.2K
Liquidity CLOB
15.2K
Start
Feb 28, 2026
End
Mar 7, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 28, 2026
Event ID
237015
Slug
will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "237015",
"ticker": "will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7",
"slug": "will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7",
"title": "Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying \"Gulf States\" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T17:35:33.503932Z",
"creationDate": "2026-02-28T17:35:33.503929Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-07T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7-a_6F8Wjd4wNY.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7-a_6F8Wjd4wNY.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 15173.077,
"volume": 133373.518011,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-02-28T15:33:14.789466Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T17:35:29.39661Z",
"competitive": 0.9880446596186148,
"volume24hr": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1wk": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1mo": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1yr": 119809.95172499998,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 15173.077,
"commentCount": 10,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1466766",
"question": "Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?",
"conditionId": "0x7c3f9482e5c8d1c00ad849581324b5e224f5e960476f535453e04c1f55d4ea49",
"slug": "will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-07T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "15173.077",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T17:33:24.569595Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7-a_6F8Wjd4wNY.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-a-gulf-state-strike-iran-by-march-7-a_6F8Wjd4wNY.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying \"Gulf States\" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.61\", \"0.39\"]",
"volume": "133373.518011",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-02-28T15:33:15.496947Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T17:35:14.204628Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x71b363edd0ac82ffe5c9944f50f6edb12f65b1b2f18164f9663bdc3102b6aa37",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 133373.518011,
"liquidityNum": 15173.077,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-07",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-28",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1wk": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1mo": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1yr": 119809.95172499998,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"91690921038632176461889168687730669028001990614770171548741382966812858465840\", \"58816541889584715498009165390917975076577621188456054628110307363191550362174\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1wkClob": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1moClob": 119809.95172499998,
"volume1yrClob": 119809.95172499998,
"volumeClob": 133373.518011,
"liquidityClob": 15173.077,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-28T17:32:19Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9880446596186148,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "89148",
"conditionId": "0x7c3f9482e5c8d1c00ad849581324b5e224f5e960476f535453e04c1f55d4ea49",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 400,
"startDate": "2026-02-28",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 5.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"lastTradePrice": 0.6,
"bestBid": 0.6,
"bestAsk": 0.62,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-28T17:31:05.961502Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
"slug": "iran",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.176417Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Vol 133.4KLiq 15.2KEnd Mar 7, 2026OpenOrder book