Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-another-country-strike-iran-by-march-31

Volume

133.5K

24h volume

96.9K

1w volume

96.9K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

12.9K

Liquidity CLOB

12.9K

Start

Mar 1, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 1, 2026

Event ID

238099

Slug

will-another-country-strike-iran-by-march-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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