Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Ticker

will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027

Volume

256.9K

24h volume

177

1w volume

14.9K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

8.4K

Liquidity CLOB

8.4K

Start

Dec 29, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 29, 2025

Event ID

131388

Slug

will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027

Markets

1

Tags

climateWeatherhurricaneearthquakeScienceClimate & ScienceNatural Disasters
Raw event data
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