Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

{
  "id": "257645",
  "ticker": "will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31",
  "slug": "will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31",
  "title": "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.\n\nQualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.\n\nWhether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-10T03:25:37.99892Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-10T03:25:37.998916Z",
  "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31-L0Qr_PwgtiSt.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31-L0Qr_PwgtiSt.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 10025.868,
  "volume": 98841.30847600002,
  "openInterest": 7059.338382,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-09T23:24:30.048787Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T21:23:36.445846Z",
  "competitive": 0.8073421308059757,
  "volume24hr": 75030.39461500001,
  "volume1wk": 77004.317821,
  "volume1mo": 98841.308476,
  "volume1yr": 98841.308476,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 10025.868,
  "commentCount": 1,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1545840",
      "question": "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?",
      "conditionId": "0x32709e5b3f15246148956e477a35c26cdb8774f41ca07686169f9e0e786b9f97",
      "slug": "will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "10115.85197",
      "startDate": "2026-03-10T03:23:57.453594Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31-L0Qr_PwgtiSt.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-march-31-L0Qr_PwgtiSt.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.\n\nQualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.\n\nWhether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0115\", \"0.9885\"]",
      "volume": "98841.30847600002",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T23:24:31.225085Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T21:23:18.682708Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x44390f2995614b6c17e8eefc7082d353bdf99b0146e64863e3f7d56d73283967",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 98841.30847600002,
      "liquidityNum": 10115.85197,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-10",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 75030.39461500001,
      "volume1wk": 77004.317821,
      "volume1mo": 98841.308476,
      "volume1yr": 98841.308476,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"75489049356816575180440511227409579133064972580945777876138644988308521143105\", \"93931667981871966505915179219983818741306759905941398853700997347398707622517\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 75030.39461500001,
      "volume1wkClob": 77004.317821,
      "volume1moClob": 98841.308476,
      "volume1yrClob": 98841.308476,
      "volumeClob": 98841.30847600002,
      "liquidityClob": 10115.85197,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-10T03:22:51Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8073421308059757,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "118422",
          "conditionId": "0x32709e5b3f15246148956e477a35c26cdb8774f41ca07686169f9e0e786b9f97",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 0.001,
          "startDate": "2026-03-28",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.003,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.01,
      "bestBid": 0.01,
      "bestAsk": 0.013,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-10T03:21:38.601499Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104010",
      "label": "Iran Ceasefire",
      "slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:58:33.637952Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T01:00:00.556226Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104064",
      "label": "Israel x Iran",
      "slug": "israel-x-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-03T03:22:41.390984Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:30:24.067082Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 98.9% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by March 31, reflecting the absence of verified diplomatic breakdowns or official actions in the final days of the resolution window. South Africa's March 11 controversy—sparked by Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell's criticism of a court ruling on the \"Kill the Boer\" chant—prompted opposition Economic Freedom Fighters demands for his expulsion and a government demarche, but tensions de-escalated after his clarification and subsequent talks with local figures like Roelf Meyer. No comparable escalations appear elsewhere amid stable bilateral relations, with expulsions historically tied to tit-for-tat spy rows or severe crises like invasions. Realistic shifts would require abrupt foreign policy shocks, such as sudden sanctions retaliation or conflict escalations, though procedural hurdles and short timelines make them improbable.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-28T21:05:35.776Z"
  }
}