Will any country leave NATO by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025

Volume

344.0K

24h volume

702

1w volume

5.8K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

8.8K

Liquidity CLOB

8.8K

Start

Feb 13, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2025

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 13, 2025

Event ID

18571

Slug

will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025

Markets

2

Raw event data
{
  "id": "18571",
  "ticker": "will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025",
  "slug": "will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025",
  "title": "Will any country leave NATO by...?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-02-13T23:08:41.618074Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-02-13T23:08:41.618072Z",
  "endDate": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 8845.46235,
  "volume": 343969.018098,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2025-02-13T22:27:42.74491Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:09:47.33551Z",
  "competitive": 0.8262945091283853,
  "volume24hr": 701.952627,
  "volume1wk": 5809.58869,
  "volume1mo": 33396.70204799999,
  "volume1yr": 343969.01809800015,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 8845.46235,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 16,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "523413",
      "question": "Will any country leave NATO in 2025?",
      "conditionId": "0x1b74c3efe140a09049e0eb6b6a2112e00fa4d199cdc718c1a58af1abf6d9e49d",
      "slug": "will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2025-02-13T23:07:31.891Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
      "volume": "277041.272422",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-02-13T22:27:44.964669Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:46:02.51836Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-01-01 08:14:37+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "December 31, 2025",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xe17af43610e690850cc6f18b9bde9604986f70c900d7b5a23eb1fae434c3bbf1",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-01-01T08:14:37Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 277041.272422,
      "endDateIso": "2025-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2025-02-13",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume1wk": 4019.526555,
      "volume1mo": 16194.359761000002,
      "volume1yr": 277041.2724220001,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"46975241878566226675389813084558441099978633579735672808077735156890286559886\", \"4274339277583331170231436480507835882687434608350779078862983050349942696879\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume1wkClob": 4019.526555,
      "volume1moClob": 16194.359761000002,
      "volume1yrClob": 277041.2724220001,
      "volumeClob": 277041.272422,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-02-13T23:06:22Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015,
      "oneHourPriceChange": -0.0015,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.003,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.011,
      "lastTradePrice": 1,
      "bestAsk": 0.001,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "629267",
      "question": "Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x663ab202c03a5e1d399578d44a3b124307db73caba79b2ead36c52ce6094b2d4",
      "slug": "will-any-country-leave-nato-by-june-30-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "8845.46235",
      "startDate": "2025-10-09T22:25:37.07085Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0415\", \"0.9585\"]",
      "volume": "66927.745676",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-10-09T22:23:09.391985Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:09:18.424431Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "June 30, 2026",
      "groupItemThreshold": "1",
      "questionID": "0x25a8c8c06f4300bfc2b02a5ca2ad1d49d4c30ff5fe4b4a211dfafc4f44910539",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 66927.745676,
      "liquidityNum": 8845.46235,
      "endDateIso": "2025-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2025-10-09",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 701.952627,
      "volume1wk": 1790.0621350000001,
      "volume1mo": 17202.342286999992,
      "volume1yr": 66927.745676,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"96777037696114848391766419517574922007344115888940813113872692623013070089375\", \"13087547955543223651509733304346768461677455960394532927963165254525635891443\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 701.952627,
      "volume1wkClob": 1790.0621350000001,
      "volume1moClob": 17202.342286999992,
      "volume1yrClob": 66927.745676,
      "volumeClob": 66927.745676,
      "liquidityClob": 8845.46235,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-10-09T22:25:15Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8262945091283853,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.007,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.0015,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.0005,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.03,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.037,
      "bestBid": 0.038,
      "bestAsk": 0.045,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-10-09T22:24:48.287428Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "192",
      "label": "nato",
      "slug": "nato",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:32:51.07+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:32:51.092Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:03:02.021107Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false
}