Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?

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    "context_description": "No European government has signaled or enacted expulsion of Israel's ambassador amid ongoing Middle East tensions, driving trader consensus to 96.3% for \"No\" by March 31. Recent diplomatic frictions—such as Spain, Ireland, and Norway recognizing Palestine last year, prompting ambassador summons rather than expulsions—have not escalated to persona non grata declarations, reflecting restraint in EU-Israel relations despite Gaza war criticisms. High confidence stems from the short remaining timeframe, absence of primary announcements from foreign ministries, and historical reluctance for such ruptures outside extreme cases like espionage. Realistic shifts could arise from a major conflict flare-up, binding ICJ ruling, or snap political pressure in a key capital like Madrid or Dublin.",
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