Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

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    "context_description": "The relentless global warming trend, driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations, underpins the 73% market-implied probability for a record-shattering month in 2026, as traders weigh recent precedents against ENSO cycles. Copernicus data confirms July 2024 as the hottest month ever recorded, with 2024 poised to eclipse 2023 as the warmest year, elevating the baseline for future extremes. Despite a cooling La Niña phase expected through 2025-2026, ensemble climate models from NOAA and ECMWF project a 70-80% chance of exceeding prior peaks in boreal summer months, fueled by persistent anthropogenic forcing. Trader consensus reflects this, tempered by natural variability, with key updates from seasonal outlooks likely to sway odds further.",
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