Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026

Volume

702.6K

24h volume

2.0K

1w volume

46.1K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

60.4K

Liquidity CLOB

60.4K

Start

Dec 17, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 17, 2025

Event ID

107726

Slug

will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "107726",
  "ticker": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",
  "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",
  "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-12-17T20:33:19.960044Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-12-17T20:33:19.96004Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 60372.01115,
  "volume": 702598.355917,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2025-12-17T20:24:01.996451Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:01:54.14257Z",
  "competitive": 0.8247279840926466,
  "volume24hr": 1953.505951,
  "volume1wk": 46070.55153400002,
  "volume1mo": 280202.5306349997,
  "volume1yr": 699997.1859170006,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 60372.01115,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "956590",
      "question": "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc",
      "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "60372.74415",
      "startDate": "2025-12-17T20:25:43.74221Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.039\", \"0.961\"]",
      "volume": "702598.355917",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-12-17T20:24:03.631369Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:03:32.361318Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x9a41af165531d6a2b8ad39bc4259c4fd54a0624aa6a2a8c1385867b955232dfa",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 702598.355917,
      "liquidityNum": 60372.74415,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2025-12-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 1953.505951,
      "volume1wk": 46070.55153400002,
      "volume1mo": 280202.5306349997,
      "volume1yr": 699997.1859170006,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"19417265162808201523789648874586390360859187511220432732521613022479578431850\", \"52131203329998207510016525064140580388668921672474814275063839342530145683684\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 1953.505951,
      "volume1wkClob": 46070.55153400002,
      "volume1moClob": 280202.5306349997,
      "volume1yrClob": 699997.1859170006,
      "volumeClob": 702598.355917,
      "liquidityClob": 60372.74415,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-12-17T20:25:21Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8247279840926466,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "53181",
          "conditionId": "0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 5,
          "startDate": "2026-01-04",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.002,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.001,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.0005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.0015,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0145,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.039,
      "bestBid": 0.038,
      "bestAsk": 0.04,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-17T20:24:47.535618Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10171",
      "ticker": "china-invade-taiwan",
      "slug": "china-invade-taiwan",
      "title": "China invade Taiwan",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-07-24T22:44:22.501114Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-22T09:02:02.619344Z",
      "volume24hr": 90702.28654799999,
      "volume": 12544007.393962,
      "liquidity": 729306.81592,
      "commentCount": 483,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "303",
      "label": "China",
      "slug": "china",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:52:11.147+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:52:11.155Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.811975Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "china-invade-taiwan",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false
}