Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881

Volume

288.5K

24h volume

72.1K

1w volume

122.2K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

10.6K

Liquidity CLOB

10.6K

Start

Jan 31, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 31, 2026

Event ID

193922

Slug

will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881

Markets

1

Raw event data
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