
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881
Volume
288.5K
24h volume
72.1K
1w volume
122.2K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
10.6K
Liquidity CLOB
10.6K
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Feb 28, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193922
Slug
will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "193922",
"ticker": "will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881",
"slug": "will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881",
"title": "Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-31T00:25:16.442525Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-31T00:25:16.44252Z",
"endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-january-31-fT-k1MlxC4Oi.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-january-31-fT-k1MlxC4Oi.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 10572.87109,
"volume": 288472.709703,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:57:57.92437Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T04:03:37.177097Z",
"competitive": 0.8035160254240507,
"volume24hr": 72100.31758000003,
"volume1wk": 122182.06812800004,
"volume1mo": 285305.928698,
"volume1yr": 285305.928698,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 10572.87109,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1301551",
"question": "Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?",
"conditionId": "0xfe9d9df6477a3e610704d41daa48d0678f50c88505e8695c1aecb53720a31d2d",
"slug": "will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-february-28-881",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "10572.87109",
"startDate": "2026-01-31T00:24:29.036826Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-january-31-fT-k1MlxC4Oi.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-january-31-fT-k1MlxC4Oi.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.0055\", \"0.9945\"]",
"volume": "288472.709703",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:57:59.964676Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T04:02:46.138244Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x21d2d542f540d1fd4d6183f45ed5575efac79ba7c4e45544e53292dbec8499f7",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 288472.709703,
"liquidityNum": 10572.87109,
"endDateIso": "2026-02-28",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-31",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 72100.31758000003,
"volume1wk": 122182.06812800004,
"volume1mo": 285305.928698,
"volume1yr": 285305.928698,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"44516430111868714267497209659360753284281992962763837197842758129798220648455\", \"25973271956766849032350674786420050337641827409668769565558109716911501707036\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 72100.31758000003,
"volume1wkClob": 122182.06812800004,
"volume1moClob": 285305.928698,
"volume1yrClob": 285305.928698,
"volumeClob": 288472.709703,
"liquidityClob": 10572.87109,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-31T00:23:24Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8035160254240507,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.009,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.004,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.0045,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0125,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestBid": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.01,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-31T00:22:07.737663Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "11010",
"ticker": "france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran",
"slug": "france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran",
"title": "France, UK or Germany strike Iran",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:56:44.772363Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T04:03:48.003828Z",
"volume24hr": 72100.31758000003,
"volume": 288472.709703,
"liquidity": 10572.87109,
"commentCount": 54,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
"slug": "iran",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.176417Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "180",
"label": "Israel",
"slug": "israel",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:07:32.350064Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?Vol 288.5KLiq 10.6KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book