Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-march-31-929

Volume

282.1K

24h volume

127.8K

1w volume

216.6K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

16.4K

Liquidity CLOB

16.4K

Start

Feb 16, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 16, 2026

Event ID

211821

Slug

will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-march-31-929

Markets

1

Raw event data
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