Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

{
  "id": "84612",
  "ticker": "will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-in-2026",
  "slug": "will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-in-2026",
  "title": "Will George R. R. Martin announce \"The Winds of Winter\" in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled \"The Winds of Winter\" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named \"The Winds of Winter\" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a \"Yes\" resolution. The book must have the words \"The Winds of Winter\" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-16T00:33:48.432785Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-16T00:33:48.432778Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-before-2027-FTx2egxxBqhU.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-before-2027-FTx2egxxBqhU.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 4261.1145,
  "volume": 9109.465178999995,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2025-11-18T17:00:35.48479Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-19T07:54:48.031244Z",
  "competitive": 0.8824372917999515,
  "volume24hr": 757,
  "volume1wk": 1912.056098,
  "volume1mo": 2466.7381189999996,
  "volume1yr": 9109.465178999999,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 4261.1145,
  "commentCount": 14,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "689501",
      "question": "Will George R. R. Martin announce \"The Winds of Winter\" in 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x2b97e33b577930315bdb95c195be7c8f5da9e67795aac5b32a7f89fc2bfe6954",
      "slug": "will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-in-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "4261.2005",
      "startDate": "2026-01-16T00:33:09.091058Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-before-2027-FTx2egxxBqhU.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-before-2027-FTx2egxxBqhU.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled \"The Winds of Winter\" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named \"The Winds of Winter\" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a \"Yes\" resolution. The book must have the words \"The Winds of Winter\" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.135\", \"0.865\"]",
      "volume": "9109.465178999995",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-11-18T17:00:36.053522Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-19T07:57:22.60068Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x50026a14d88bea5785ddfb44bfbebf163948d8f679441a13a1eb5446453fa355",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 9109.465178999995,
      "liquidityNum": 4261.2005,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-16",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 757,
      "volume1wk": 1912.056098,
      "volume1mo": 2466.7381189999996,
      "volume1yr": 9109.465178999999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"34629230706859515985632565837314577837403293213118477161236306835196402835327\", \"20300882457883313494670553893238589373756384031975729972127918621286340739468\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 757,
      "volume1wkClob": 1912.056098,
      "volume1moClob": 2466.7381189999996,
      "volume1yrClob": 9109.465178999999,
      "volumeClob": 9109.465178999995,
      "liquidityClob": 4261.2005,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-16T00:32:46Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8824372917999515,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.07,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.02,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": 0.01,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.13,
      "bestBid": 0.1,
      "bestAsk": 0.17,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-16T00:32:14.9415Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "102855",
      "label": "books",
      "slug": "books",
      "createdAt": "2025-11-17T15:16:15.378159Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:58:00.3511Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "286",
      "label": "Celebrities",
      "slug": "celebrities",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:48:48.368+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:48:48.383Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:41.363303Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "596",
      "label": "Culture",
      "slug": "pop-culture",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.806106Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "53",
      "label": "Movies",
      "slug": "movies",
      "forceShow": true,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:14:39.573+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:14:39.577Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:28:23.447395Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus heavily favors \"No\" at 86.5% for George R.R. Martin announcing The Winds of Winter in 2026, driven by his 13-year drought since A Dance with Dragons and recent blog posts underscoring painfully slow progress—over 1,100 pages drafted but no firm timeline amid House of the Dragon duties and other projects. At 76, Martin's age fuels completion skepticism, echoing unfulfilled past teases that eroded fan trust. Key catalysts like holiday updates or convention hints have yielded nothing substantive lately, reinforcing market-implied odds against a breakthrough reveal next year, though his Not A Blog stays the ultimate sentiment barometer.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-19T06:39:03.581Z"
  }
}