Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus heavily favors \"No\" at 93.5% implied probability for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of credible intelligence, official threats, or preparatory actions from Tehran. Recent Red Sea cable disruptions, like those affecting SEACOM and EIG lines in February-March, were linked to Yemen's Houthis—Tehran's proxies—rather than direct Iranian operations, with Yemen denying involvement and no evidence implicating Iran proper. Amid Israel-Iran shadow war tensions and U.S. naval patrols, escalation risks and international backlash deter overt sabotage, while diplomatic channels remain active; traders price in these geopolitical constraints absent new catalysts.",
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