
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any Iraqi embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28
Volume
95.6K
24h volume
32.1K
1w volume
75.2K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
—
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Feb 28, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193899
Slug
will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "193899",
"ticker": "will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28",
"slug": "will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28",
"title": "Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any Iraqi embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-31T00:25:11.893648Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-31T00:25:11.893644Z",
"endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28-SQFYrgMafj63.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28-SQFYrgMafj63.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"volume": 95588.664558,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:22:41.623079Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T18:29:36.387127Z",
"volume24hr": 32069.03569700001,
"volume1wk": 75187.34761499998,
"volume1mo": 93380.14430399997,
"volume1yr": 95422.63455799998,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1301475",
"question": "Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?",
"conditionId": "0x6893f12238737d85b446921aaab11b92f0d4321e9e8476a89479c660134deeb1",
"slug": "will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-01-31T00:22:26.84097Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28-SQFYrgMafj63.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28-SQFYrgMafj63.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any Iraqi embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "95588.664558",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:22:43.822574Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T18:29:25.161252Z",
"closedTime": "2026-03-01 16:23:03+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xb7dfe11c50e9d9aba049605cd34d37ed4f81de6c1a3e1ab15c6387c99c469641",
"umaEndDate": "2026-03-01T16:23:03Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 95588.664558,
"endDateIso": "2026-02-28",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-31",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 32069.03569700001,
"volume1wk": 75187.34761499998,
"volume1mo": 93380.14430399997,
"volume1yr": 95422.63455799998,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"32327418079500196505900700669166200466145044902512588651355726100282964692163\", \"52687809934620879276626889616789992149648067884322235156924332815818107022224\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 32069.03569700001,
"volume1wkClob": 75187.34761499998,
"volume1moClob": 93380.14430399997,
"volume1yrClob": 95422.63455799998,
"volumeClob": 95588.664558,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-31T00:21:22Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.0095,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.001,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.007,
"lastTradePrice": 0.002,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-31T00:20:07.532544Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10715",
"ticker": "israel-x-iraq-strike",
"slug": "israel-x-iraq-strike",
"title": "Israel x Iraq Strike",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "annual",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2025-12-01T18:19:18.393346Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-01T18:29:39.786156Z",
"volume24hr": 32069.03569700001,
"commentCount": 52,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "61",
"label": "Gaza",
"slug": "gaza",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:15:21.229+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:15:21.233Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:14:50.344309Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100756",
"label": "iraq",
"slug": "iraq",
"createdAt": "2024-10-07T20:52:14.126784Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:07:32.293294Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "180",
"label": "Israel",
"slug": "israel",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:07:32.350064Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "154",
"label": "Middle East",
"slug": "middle-east",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.1776Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"closedTime": "2026-03-01T16:23:03Z",
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "israel-x-iraq-strike",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}- Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?Vol 95.6KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed