Will Putin visit China by May 31?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a 56% implied probability against Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting China by May 31, driven by the lack of a confirmed itinerary despite high-level diplomatic signals. In a February 4 videoconference, Putin accepted Chinese President Xi Jinping's invitation for an official visit in the first half of 2026, with Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov noting preparations for spring and November trips. On March 23-24, Russia's Foreign Ministry announced the visit as \"upcoming\" with dates finalizing soon, fueling speculation of a May trip immediately following U.S. President Trump's planned Beijing summit on May 14-15—though Trump's schedule reports delays. Absent an official announcement amid Ukraine negotiations and bilateral priorities, traders weigh delay risks over the next eight weeks.",
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