
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026
Volume
248.7K
24h volume
125.2K
1w volume
242.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
48.5K
Liquidity CLOB
48.5K
Start
Mar 1, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 1, 2026
Event ID
238279
Slug
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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}- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Vol 248.7KLiq 48.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book