Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026

Volume

248.7K

24h volume

125.2K

1w volume

242.8K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

48.5K

Liquidity CLOB

48.5K

Start

Mar 1, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 1, 2026

Event ID

238279

Slug

will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "238279",
  "ticker": "will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026",
  "slug": "will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026",
  "title": "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-01T03:43:39.133285Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-01T03:43:39.133279Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-this-year-XQPcw_pYOeJp.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-this-year-XQPcw_pYOeJp.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 48528.12231,
  "volume": 248736.293477,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-01T03:34:51.846006Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-03T12:33:17.878899Z",
  "competitive": 0.911032028469751,
  "volume24hr": 125218.63336099997,
  "volume1wk": 242806.71528399992,
  "volume1mo": 242806.71528399992,
  "volume1yr": 242806.71528399992,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 48528.12231,
  "commentCount": 8,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1472548",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0xaa5cdb6830cbfa2ca711b7cf93bd42cf4f8e062d44ea188c0b8ec1fb2924c083",
      "slug": "will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "48321.10401",
      "startDate": "2026-03-01T03:38:32.366385Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-this-year-XQPcw_pYOeJp.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-this-year-XQPcw_pYOeJp.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.1875\", \"0.8125\"]",
      "volume": "248736.293477",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-01T03:34:52.93532Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-03T12:34:39.027517Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x9228bd0c364c92b0ddf5840beda85270f84a3f81fba473344b4cf14e4690151d",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 248736.293477,
      "liquidityNum": 48321.10401,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-01",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 125218.63336099997,
      "volume1wk": 242806.71528399992,
      "volume1mo": 242806.71528399992,
      "volume1yr": 242806.71528399992,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"104932610032177696635191871147557737718087870958469629338467406422339967452218\", \"96214953624495509683027302209340859673097705517450500531670409012928242777230\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 125218.63336099997,
      "volume1wkClob": 242806.71528399992,
      "volume1moClob": 242806.71528399992,
      "volume1yrClob": 242806.71528399992,
      "volumeClob": 248736.293477,
      "liquidityClob": 48321.10401,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-01T03:37:27Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.911032028469751,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "89682",
          "conditionId": "0xaa5cdb6830cbfa2ca711b7cf93bd42cf4f8e062d44ea188c0b8ec1fb2924c083",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 200,
          "startDate": "2026-03-01",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.195,
      "bestBid": 0.187,
      "bestAsk": 0.188,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-01T03:36:13.098848Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:13:00.176417Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103995",
      "label": "shah",
      "slug": "shah",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-28T23:20:45.492893Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-28T23:25:01.934571Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103996",
      "label": "Reza Pahlavi",
      "slug": "reza-pahlavi",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-01T18:06:44.46346Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-01T18:10:03.947034Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104039",
      "label": "U.S. x Iran",
      "slug": "trump-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-02T21:00:02.304058Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104005",
      "label": "Iran Regime",
      "slug": "iranian-leadership-regime",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:48:14.400431Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-03T00:00:03.222077Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false
}