Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Ticker

will-russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne-by-april-30

Volume

953

24h volume

953

1w volume

953

Open interest

629

Liquidity

10.8K

Liquidity CLOB

10.8K

Start

Apr 1, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 1, 2026

Event ID

333278

Slug

will-russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

GeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Ukrainian forces have repelled recent Russian assaults on Hryshyne, northwest of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, including failed covert advances amid fog and direct infantry attacks, as confirmed by geolocated footage and statements from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on April 1. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported Russian troops facing food and water shortages while unable to bypass the village, leading to frontal engagements where Ukrainian counterattacks, including in the northwest sector, maintain contested control. Despite earlier March advances securing partial footholds, the attritional pace and ongoing Ukrainian defenses explain trader consensus pricing an 85.5% implied probability against Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by April 30.",
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