Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.608982° N, 37.720231° E in Viroliubivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+1.png Intersection Location in Viroliubivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+2.png Viroliubivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Nj4j57W7EW9qUPmRA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Ticker

will-russia-capture-viroliubivka-by-march-31

Volume

12.4K

24h volume

6.9K

1w volume

7.4K

Open interest

6.5K

Liquidity

13.8K

Liquidity CLOB

13.8K

Start

Mar 6, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 6, 2026

Event ID

244183

Slug

will-russia-capture-viroliubivka-by-march-31

Markets

2

Tags

GeopoliticsUkraine MapUkraine
Raw event data
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  "title": "Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Russian forces have pressed assaults near Viroliubivka, a small village northeast of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, amid ongoing advances in the Pokrovsk direction, with geolocated footage from late October showing marginal gains south of the settlement but no confirmed capture. Ukrainian defenses report repelling multiple infantry attacks supported by artillery and drones, maintaining control as of the latest updates. This fits broader Russian incremental tactics exploiting Ukrainian manpower shortages and delayed Western aid, though harsh weather may slow operations soon. Traders watch daily frontline maps from sources like DeepStateUA for shifts, with escalation risks from intensified airstrikes or Ukrainian counteroffensives potentially tipping control before any resolution date.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-27T10:37:37.756Z"
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