Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?

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    "context_description": "Russian forces have seized central districts of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast after rapid advances over the past week, with geolocated footage and Russian Ministry of Defense claims confirming troops inside the town by late April, driving trader consensus to a 99.5% Yes probability ahead of the April 30 deadline. Key enablers include capture of surrounding heights like those near Torske and Ridkodub in mid-April, Ukrainian frontline strains from manpower shortages and delayed U.S. aid packages, and Russian superiority in artillery and drones. Markets reflect near-certainty of occupation, though slim scenarios like a successful Ukrainian counterattack with fresh reinforcements or escalated Western weapons deliveries could still avert full entry.",
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