Will Russia enter Svitle by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, (48.403602° N, 37.117327° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Ticker

will-russia-enter-svitle-by-march-31

Volume

20.6K

24h volume

1.3K

1w volume

5.8K

Open interest

11.8K

Liquidity

19.2K

Liquidity CLOB

19.2K

Start

Mar 10, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 10, 2026

Event ID

257151

Slug

will-russia-enter-svitle-by-march-31

Markets

2

Raw event data
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  "title": "Will Russia enter Svitle by...?",
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      "slug": "will-russia-enter-svitle-by-april-30",
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      "startDate": "2026-03-12T19:02:58.313Z",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, (48.403602° N, 37.117327° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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  "tags": [
    {
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      "label": "Geopolitics",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Russian forces have sustained motorized assaults toward Svitle in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk direction, with ISW assessments from March 27, 2026, noting continued attacks near Hryshyne, Shevchenko, Serhiivka, and Svitle amid over 150 daily frontline clashes, 42 in Pokrovsk alone. Ukrainian defenses report halting major offensives, though incremental Russian pressure persists northwest of Pokrovsk following advances nearby like Hryshyne. December 2025 Russian claims of capturing Svitle lack ISW map confirmation, leaving the settlement contested. Trader sentiment reflects this attritional stalemate, where Ukrainian reinforcements, Western aid, seasonal weather, or escalation signals could tip control before resolution dates.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-01T04:23:16.206Z"
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