Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Ticker

will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025

Volume

3.4M

24h volume

730

1w volume

43.5K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

44.0K

Liquidity CLOB

44.0K

Start

May 28, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2025

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

May 28, 2025

Event ID

25413

Slug

will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025

Markets

2

Raw event data
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