Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Ticker

will-ukraine-re-enter-maliivka-by-march-31

Volume

9.3K

24h volume

1.7K

1w volume

6.1K

Open interest

0

Liquidity

6.2K

Liquidity CLOB

6.2K

Start

Mar 10, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 10, 2026

Event ID

257564

Slug

will-ukraine-re-enter-maliivka-by-march-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "slug": "will-ukraine-re-enter-maliivka-by-march-31",
  "title": "Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours\", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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  "startDate": "2026-03-10T03:19:28.127002Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-10T03:19:28.126996Z",
  "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "id": "1545296",
      "question": "Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours\", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
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    {
      "id": "96",
      "label": "Ukraine",
      "slug": "ukraine",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 83.5% for Ukraine re-entering Maliivka by March 31, driven by the stalled summer counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where Russian forces maintain firm control of the village since its 2022 capture. Recent developments, including intensified fighting around Avdiivka and Kupiansk with no reported gains near Maliivka, underscore limited Ukrainian momentum amid ammunition shortages and harsh winter conditions. Official Ukrainian statements emphasize defensive consolidation over southern breakthroughs, while Russian fortifications and minefields persist as major barriers. With the deadline approaching and no imminent operations signaled, traders see re-entry as improbable absent a sudden shift.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-17T20:33:27.964Z"
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