Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Ticker

will-ukraine-re-enter-rodynske-by-april-30

Volume

113.4K

24h volume

98.5K

1w volume

111.0K

Open interest

25.9K

Liquidity

41.0K

Liquidity CLOB

41.0K

Start

Mar 23, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 23, 2026

Event ID

300596

Slug

will-ukraine-re-enter-rodynske-by-april-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?",
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    "context_description": "Recent geolocated footage and OSINT reports confirm Ukrainian forces entered central Rodynske in the past 48 hours, escalating street-by-street fighting in this key Pokrovsk-direction logistics node vital to Russian supply lines toward Donetsk. Traders' 79.5% implied probability for Ukrainian re-entry by April 30 reflects this momentum, building on January advances and March defenses that repelled Russian assaults despite heavy infantry clashes. Russian reinforcements strain overextended fronts elsewhere, while Ukraine maintains active counterattacks near adjacent Bilytske and the Zaporizhya mine. With 25 days remaining, sustained pressure could force Russian withdrawal, though escalation risks persist absent diplomatic breakthroughs.",
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