
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ticker
2026-march-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
Volume
316.6K
24h volume
4.6K
1w volume
44.9K
Open interest
32.8K
Liquidity
18.9K
Liquidity CLOB
18.9K
Start
Feb 26, 2026
End
Apr 10, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 26, 2026
Event ID
232623
Slug
2026-march-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
Markets
4
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"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:01.521179Z",
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"seriesSlug": "hottest-month",
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"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-26T22:43:24.711134Z",
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"context_description": "Preliminary data from NOAA's global land-ocean temperature index and Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 surface air temperatures confirm March 2026 ranked fourth or lower among historical Marches, trailing record-setters from 2023–2025 amid lingering El Niño effects. Despite exceptional U.S. continental warmth—shattering regional March records in the Southwest—the global average was moderated by cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific as La Niña influences reemerged, alongside neutral-to-cool anomalies over parts of Eurasia and the Southern Ocean. Trader consensus at 99.2% for \"4th or lower\" aligns with these measurements, showing anomalies around 0.9–1.0°C above the 20th-century baseline, below the 1.2–1.5°C peaks of recent toppers. Final rankings await NOAA's end-of-April report, though major upward revisions are improbable given dataset convergence; only anomalous data corrections could challenge this positioning.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-07T07:19:56.405Z"
}
}