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Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
gulf-state-military-action-against-iran-by
Volume
721.3K
24h volume
56.5K
1w volume
549.2K
Open interest
147.0K
Liquidity
69.1K
Liquidity CLOB
69.1K
Start
Mar 27, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 27, 2026
Event ID
308333
Slug
gulf-state-military-action-against-iran-by
Markets
2
Tags
Raw event data
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"title": "Gulf State military action against Iran by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying \"Gulf States\" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
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"question": "Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?",
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"liquidity": "39389.02881",
"startDate": "2026-03-27T17:48:45.082393Z",
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"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying \"Gulf States\" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
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"context_description": "Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with over 500 interceptions reported in early April—have shifted trader consensus, as Saudi officials warn of potential retaliatory military action if attacks persist, amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and new US naval blockade of Iranian ports effective April 13. This has driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, up nearly 6% in the past session on Strait of Hormuz disruptions threatening 20% of global oil flows, while VIX volatility spikes reflect broader risk-off positioning in equities and Treasuries. Gulf equities remain subdued post-failed Islamabad talks, with key catalysts including ongoing blockade enforcement and April 17 FOMC signals on inflation tied to energy shocks. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price in low near-term odds for Gulf strikes, balancing diplomatic backchannels against proxy escalations.",
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}- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Vol 260.6KLiq 29.3KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Vol 460.7KLiq 39.4KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book