
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
gulf-state-military-action-against-iran-by
Volume
375.5K
24h volume
187.8K
1w volume
311.8K
Open interest
108.3K
Liquidity
36.5K
Liquidity CLOB
36.5K
Start
Mar 27, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 27, 2026
Event ID
308333
Slug
gulf-state-military-action-against-iran-by
Markets
2
Tags
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability of Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, reflecting escalating retaliatory dynamics after Iranian missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and others amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent developments include a fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7—yet continued alerts underscore breakdown risks—prompting Gulf leaders to abandon initial neutrality for offensive posturing, with officials weighing direct strikes to degrade Iran's capabilities. Brent crude plunged 13% to $95 per barrel today on de-escalation hopes, easing the geopolitical risk premium after prior surges above $110, while VIX volatility lingers near 24 amid Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions curbing 11 million barrels/day flows. Key catalysts: ceasefire adherence and UN-LAS briefings this month.",
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}