Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?

Name: Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Start: 2026-03-24T17:14:03.463603Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
hezbollah-military-action-against-israel-on-551
Volume
386.9K
24h volume
128.8K
1w volume
193.4K
Open interest
53.0K
Liquidity
24.3K
Liquidity CLOB
24.3K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303745
Slug
hezbollah-military-action-against-israel-on-551
Markets
Tags
U.S. x Iran Middle East Iran Offensive Strikes Military Strikes Geopolitics Israel Iran Hezbollah strike Lebanon Israel x Iran
Raw event data
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      "title": "Hezbollah military action against Israel on",
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    "context_description": "Despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 excluding Lebanon, Israel conducted its deadliest strikes against Hezbollah targets, killing over 250 in a single day amid ongoing ground operations and plans for a southern Lebanon buffer zone. Hezbollah responded with rocket barrages toward northern Israel, including strikes claimed on troops near Shamaa and towns like Nahariya on April 9, while vowing continued attacks. Escalation persists despite the truce, with Netanyahu affirming no ceasefire applies to Lebanon and Hezbollah maintaining daily drone and artillery operations. Traders should monitor fragile diplomatic talks on Hezbollah disarmament and potential UN mediation, as cross-border military actions remain routine amid heightened tensions.",
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}
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Vol 73.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
Vol 58.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?
Vol 52.8KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?
Vol 38.1KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?
Vol 25.8KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?
Vol 22.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?
Vol 15.5KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?
Vol 12.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
Vol 19.7KLiq 15.0KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?
Vol 69.2KLiq 15.3KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 19, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 20, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 12, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 18, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 24, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 30, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 17, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 11, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 16, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 22, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 23, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 28, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 29, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 13, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 14, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 15, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 21, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 25, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 26, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 27, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book