Human moon landing in 2026?

{
  "id": "149812",
  "ticker": "human-moon-landing-in-2026",
  "slug": "human-moon-landing-in-2026",
  "title": "Human moon landing in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of technical complications.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-07T21:03:14.738194Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-07T21:03:14.73819Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us+moon+landing.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us+moon+landing.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 37076.95013,
  "volume": 1905896.0287540124,
  "openInterest": 26418.027685,
  "createdAt": "2026-01-07T20:41:55.780504Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T16:07:11.961197Z",
  "competitive": 0.8266075036122748,
  "volume24hr": 1003.938821,
  "volume1wk": 3023.636812999999,
  "volume1mo": 45719.29552899998,
  "volume1yr": 1905896.028754008,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 37076.95013,
  "commentCount": 29,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1131170",
      "question": "Human moon landing in 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x57e94552876e125c4a030239d693576dac1792e956982b653ce8c9b4fbc8f23c",
      "slug": "human-moon-landing-in-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "37027.25713",
      "startDate": "2026-01-07T21:02:43.505437Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us+moon+landing.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us+moon+landing.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of technical complications.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.042\", \"0.958\"]",
      "volume": "1905896.0287540124",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-07T20:41:56.754741Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T16:06:42.274777Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x842edbaa7cd6c6873168fa70586c568849e76b09914fa519cf278a214b17cf7a",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 1905896.0287540124,
      "liquidityNum": 37027.25713,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-07",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 1003.938821,
      "volume1wk": 3023.636812999999,
      "volume1mo": 45719.29552899998,
      "volume1yr": 1905896.028754008,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"28341635557911393150957317220979689346286160229232485531195528953133660242151\", \"110420951352726780968858751854229131963307700036109190281766766630426312327876\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 1003.938821,
      "volume1wkClob": 3023.636812999999,
      "volume1moClob": 45719.29552899998,
      "volume1yrClob": 1905896.028754008,
      "volumeClob": 1905896.0287540124,
      "liquidityClob": 37027.25713,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-07T21:02:21Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8266075036122748,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "88429",
          "conditionId": "0x57e94552876e125c4a030239d693576dac1792e956982b653ce8c9b4fbc8f23c",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 0.001,
          "startDate": "2026-02-27",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.004,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0145,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0125,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.04,
      "bestBid": 0.04,
      "bestAsk": 0.044,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-07T21:01:49.641283Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "1401",
      "label": "Tech",
      "slug": "tech",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-21 23:06:12.305+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-21T23:06:12.324Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:01.532137Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "596",
      "label": "Culture",
      "slug": "pop-culture",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.806106Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "74",
      "label": "Science",
      "slug": "science",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:20.623+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:20.826Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:33:38.571503Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103037",
      "label": "Climate & Science",
      "slug": "climate-science",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-12-30T23:31:52.33537Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:44.49474Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "NASA's recent reprofiling of the Artemis III mission as a low-Earth orbit demonstration—testing SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS) and Blue Origin's lander without a lunar touchdown—has solidified trader consensus at 95.8% against a human moon landing in 2026. Following the successful Artemis II crewed lunar flyby in early April 2026, persistent delays in Starship development, including uncrewed test shortfalls and supply chain hurdles, alongside Blue Origin's lagging Blue Moon progress, prompted the shift, with landings now eyed for 2027 or later. Regulatory scrutiny on SpaceX's rapid iteration and potential technical setbacks in Orion-SLS integration further underpin the high confidence, though an improbable breakthrough in Starship orbital refueling or accelerated NASA certification could theoretically reopen the 2026 window.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T16:02:33.427Z"
  }
}