Human moon landing in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.8% implied probability of no human moon landing in 2026, driven primarily by NASA's February 27 overhaul of the Artemis program, which scrapped plans for Artemis III to achieve a lunar landing this year or in 2027. Instead, the mission now focuses on low-Earth orbit docking tests with SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS) and Blue Origin's counterpart, both lagging due to persistent Starship development hurdles like in-space refueling demonstrations and uncrewed lunar demos not slated until 2027 at earliest. Ongoing Artemis II lunar flyby—launched early April—marks progress but underscores landing delays from SLS rocket issues and heat shield fixes. China's crewed lunar ambitions target 2030, leaving no viable 2026 contender. While accelerated Starship testing or private initiatives could theoretically shift odds, significant technical and certification barriers make a late-year surprise improbable with just eight months remaining.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T20:48:04.851Z"
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