Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Name: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Start: 2026-03-27T00:25:52.152041Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Featured
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by
Volume
419.2K
24h volume
111.4K
1w volume
324.8K
Open interest
154.0K
Liquidity
69.3K
Liquidity CLOB
69.3K
Start
Mar 27, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 27, 2026
Event ID
310530
Slug
iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by
Markets
Tags
Geopolitics Trump Middle East Iran Ceasefire Politics U.S. x Iran Iran Nuclear
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours, with Iran refusing to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium—a core US demand for any nuclear deal amid fragile ceasefire efforts post-2025 strikes on facilities like Natanz and Fordow. IAEA reports confirm Iran's holdings of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium, sufficient for multiple bombs if processed further, remain unverified due to damaged sites and restricted access. Earlier February signals via Oman of potential zero-stockpiling concessions have evaporated, hardening Tehran's stance on enrichment rights. No further talks are planned, leaving traders to monitor for sanctions escalation, renewed airstrikes, or multilateral diplomacy via UN or EU channels that could shift probabilities.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-12T04:34:25.417Z"
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