Iran coup attempt by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78% implied probability against any coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's cohesion amid the ongoing US-Israel war that began with strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military infrastructure. Tehran’s downing of a US F-15 jet on April 5—its second such incident—serves as a propaganda win, bolstering domestic support and highlighting defensive resilience against escalation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has framed prior unrest as crushed foreign-orchestrated plots, with no verified reports of Revolutionary Guard dissent or elite fractures emerging in official channels. While proxy depletions and economic strains persist, traders see high barriers to internal overthrow absent major command breakdowns.",
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