Iran coup attempt by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability of no coup attempt in Iran by June 30 amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire following the February-March 2026 war, where US and Israeli strikes targeted military sites but failed to trigger internal overthrow despite prior unrest. January 2026 nationwide protests, crushed by Revolutionary Guards with thousands killed, were framed by Supreme Leader Khamenei as a foreign-backed \"coup plot,\" but IRGC loyalty held firm, foiling reported efforts by ex-officials like Hassan Rouhani. No verifiable coup signals have emerged in the past 30 days, as diplomatic talks in Islamabad and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shift focus to de-escalation, reducing domestic upheaval risks ahead of potential nuclear negotiations.",
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