Iran coup attempt by June 30?

{
  "id": "147609",
  "ticker": "iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
  "slug": "iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
  "title": "Iran coup attempt by June 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-06T19:45:29.19918Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-06T19:45:29.199178Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-8SI-ZxJABza-.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-8SI-ZxJABza-.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 26638.5632,
  "volume": 352166.5619550001,
  "openInterest": 90909.79108,
  "createdAt": "2026-01-06T17:58:20.410865Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:36:40.31877Z",
  "competitive": 0.9097318565352862,
  "volume24hr": 2705.2396710000003,
  "volume1wk": 13029.201190000002,
  "volume1mo": 156575.65111199996,
  "volume1yr": 352166.5619549993,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 26638.5632,
  "commentCount": 17,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1123479",
      "question": "Iran coup attempt by June 30?",
      "conditionId": "0x17c9dead8bed402d330e2aa5bcfb4d6f7764d3cc60d6508a03be003f4e88e64b",
      "slug": "iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "26442.9488",
      "startDate": "2026-01-06T19:39:41.69Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-8SI-ZxJABza-.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-8SI-ZxJABza-.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.185\", \"0.815\"]",
      "volume": "352166.5619550001",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-06T17:58:21.366108Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:13.376937Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x9493a82b0ba752c46f17088dc2e76eaf124c054603735cd4b202f3e0074e738f",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 352166.5619550001,
      "liquidityNum": 26442.9488,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-06",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 2705.2396710000003,
      "volume1wk": 13029.201190000002,
      "volume1mo": 156575.65111199996,
      "volume1yr": 352166.5619549993,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"101322624361424459934612537190451876863815027318718596269890092699811291103186\", \"17736854597398191765820321649932263037011221961606447057489098988955658367258\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 2705.2396710000003,
      "volume1wkClob": 13029.201190000002,
      "volume1moClob": 156575.65111199996,
      "volume1yrClob": 352166.5619549993,
      "volumeClob": 352166.5619550001,
      "liquidityClob": 26442.9488,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-06T19:39:19Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9097318565352862,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "53822",
          "conditionId": "0x17c9dead8bed402d330e2aa5bcfb4d6f7764d3cc60d6508a03be003f4e88e64b",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 2,
          "startDate": "2026-01-06",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.025,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.15,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.19,
      "bestBid": 0.18,
      "bestAsk": 0.19,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-06T19:38:47.65025Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104005",
      "label": "Iran Regime",
      "slug": "iranian-leadership-regime",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:48:14.400431Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:23.402244Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103996",
      "label": "Reza Pahlavi",
      "slug": "reza-pahlavi",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-01T18:06:44.46346Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.587148Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes in the 2026 Iran war since late February, traders price an 81.5% \"No\" probability for a coup attempt by June 30, reflecting regime resilience and absence of recent internal fracture signals. A January plot reportedly involving ex-President figures to oust Supreme Leader Khamenei was quickly suppressed by loyalists like Ali Larijani, with no verified follow-up efforts in the past 30 days. Instead, IRGC consolidation of key government roles amid leadership vacuums—labeled a \"silent coup\" in recent reporting—bolsters control, while crackdowns curb protests despite economic strain. Barriers include IRGC loyalty and external threats unifying elites, though war escalation or elite defections could shift dynamics.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:33:44.667Z"
  }
}