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Israel military action against Beirut on...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
israel-military-action-against-beirut-on-522
Volume
326.3K
24h volume
37.3K
1w volume
134.1K
Open interest
32.4K
Liquidity
44.6K
Liquidity CLOB
44.6K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303662
Slug
israel-military-action-against-beirut-on-522
Markets
30
Raw event data
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"title": "Israel military action against Beirut on...?",
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{
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"question": "Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?",
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"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
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{
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"question": "Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 13, 2026?",
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"context_description": "Escalating clashes in the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war, triggered by Hezbollah rocket barrages since March 2, drive trader focus on potential Israeli military action against Beirut, with the Israel Defense Forces launching massive airstrikes on Hezbollah command centers, weapons depots, and infrastructure across the capital and southern Lebanon. On April 8, Israel executed its largest operation yet, striking over 100 sites in minutes and killing hundreds despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire excluding this front; Hezbollah retaliated April 11 with 30 rockets, prompting further Israeli hits on 200 targets. Israel rejects preemptive ceasefire ahead of direct talks with Lebanon next week, while expanding a southern buffer zone toward the Litani River amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and over 2,000 Lebanese deaths.",
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}- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?Vol 43.0KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?Vol 25.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?Vol 22.1KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?Vol 20.0KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?Vol 14.7KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?Vol 7.4KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?Vol 112.0KLiq 33.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?Vol 31.8KLiq 10.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?Vol 39.8KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?Vol 10.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 13, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 17, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 21, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 25, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 29, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 14, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 18, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 22, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 26, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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