
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
israel-military-action-against-iran-by-167
Volume
491.6K
24h volume
307.9K
1w volume
491.6K
Open interest
194.0K
Liquidity
51.0K
Liquidity CLOB
51.0K
Start
Apr 8, 2026
End
Apr 21, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 8, 2026
Event ID
357509
Slug
israel-military-action-against-iran-by-167
Markets
2
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"context_description": "A fragile ceasefire in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, sparked by massive US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military facilities, and leadership, shows cracks after Israel's April 4 strikes on the Mahshahr petrochemical complex and April 6 attacks on three Iranian airports. Iran responded with ballistic missile salvos post-truce announcement, prompting continued Israeli airstrikes despite diplomatic efforts. US-led talks in Islamabad faltered on April 12 without progress, as Israeli polls indicate public opposition to ending hostilities. Traders weigh ceasefire violations, escalation risks from Iranian-backed proxies like Hezbollah, and upcoming direct Israel-Lebanon peace discussions that could influence de-escalation or further military action against Iran.",
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