Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

Name: Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Start: 2026-03-24T17:08:17.694585Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-178
Volume
327.7K
24h volume
111.0K
1w volume
181.8K
Open interest
25.9K
Liquidity
16.6K
Liquidity CLOB
16.6K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303623
Slug
israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-178
Markets
Tags
Israel x Iran Israel Geopolitics Middle East Lebanon strike Hezbollah
Raw event data
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      "question": "Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 29, 2026?",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
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    "context_description": "Israel's massive airstrikes on Hezbollah targets across Lebanon on April 8-9, 2026—the most intensive campaign to date with over 100 sorties killing hundreds—have heightened trader scrutiny amid a U.S.-Iran ceasefire excluding the northern front. Hezbollah retaliated with rocket fire into northern Israel, prompting Israeli vows of further escalation \"regardless\" of diplomatic pauses. Direct talks between Israel and Lebanon commenced April 9 without a ceasefire commitment, while earlier March rocket barrages and reports of invasion planning south of the Litani River sustain border tensions. Upcoming negotiations and potential ground maneuvers represent key catalysts that could shift escalation risks.",
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Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?
Vol 116.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?
Vol 33.8KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 3, 2026?
Vol 24.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?
Vol 20.6KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 4, 2026?
Vol 20.5KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?
Vol 17.8KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?
Vol 17.1KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?
Vol 11.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?
Vol 54.4KLiq 9.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?
Vol 11.7KLiq 7.3KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 11, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 14, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 15, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 16, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 17, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 22, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 12, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 13, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 18, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 19, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 20, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 21, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 23, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 24, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 25, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 26, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 27, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 28, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 29, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 30, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book