
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15
Volume
460.3K
24h volume
3.2K
1w volume
30.4K
Open interest
80.0K
Liquidity
32.8K
Liquidity CLOB
32.8K
Start
Jan 30, 2026
End
May 15, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 30, 2026
Event ID
193773
Slug
kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15
Markets
2
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"context_description": "President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in late January 2026, formally transmitting the nomination to the Senate on March 4. Powell's chair term expires May 15, prompting urgency as recent reports highlight risks of a leadership vacuum if delays persist, potentially disrupting monetary policy amid high yields and inflation pressures. The Senate Banking Committee scheduled Warsh's confirmation hearing for April 16, with traders eyeing GOP senators like John Kennedy amid reports of internal divisions over Fed independence. Full Senate confirmation requires a simple majority vote post-hearing, historically swift for nominees but vulnerable to holds or procedural snags before the deadline.",
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