
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15
Volume
461.4K
24h volume
1.1K
1w volume
25.1K
Open interest
79.9K
Liquidity
33.3K
Liquidity CLOB
33.3K
Start
Jan 30, 2026
End
May 15, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 30, 2026
Event ID
193773
Slug
kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15
Markets
2
Raw event data
{
"id": "193773",
"ticker": "kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15",
"slug": "kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15",
"title": "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.\n\nThe Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-30T21:25:22.304997Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-30T21:25:22.304992Z",
"endDate": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-SWHXAR6lQmLF.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-SWHXAR6lQmLF.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 33264.1769,
"volume": 461388.92677500047,
"openInterest": 79867.036908,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T18:44:44.186309Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T22:38:20.4925Z",
"competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
"volume24hr": 1101.278827,
"volume1wk": 25090.050226999996,
"volume1mo": 176783.790115,
"volume1yr": 461388.92677500023,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 33264.1769,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 11,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1320806",
"question": "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?",
"conditionId": "0x5360f524a00e2d02089ad82fe32061742c2df6ad282d44d6f91b96f23c18af7f",
"slug": "kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-1",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "25277.28",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T17:56:11.549859Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-SWHXAR6lQmLF.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-SWHXAR6lQmLF.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.\n\nThe Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.1\", \"0.9\"]",
"volume": "304232.62008700054",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-02-02T17:53:00.406682Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T22:37:48.151793Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "May 1",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x58fe2a830b84fa0d2f826b4f559c152a7521a5b95f42229e792f177978c9714d",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 304232.62008700054,
"liquidityNum": 25277.28,
"endDateIso": "2026-05-15",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 350.60999999999996,
"volume1wk": 13355.073945999999,
"volume1mo": 81279.38879,
"volume1yr": 304232.6200870002,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"111624140514182231337409851544772617326875062090065875736475168821343200371098\", \"65194514534340200857179918259450457768327105663697225489104584618165143589098\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 350.60999999999996,
"volume1wkClob": 13355.073945999999,
"volume1moClob": 81279.38879,
"volume1yrClob": 304232.6200870002,
"volumeClob": 304232.62008700054,
"liquidityClob": 25277.28,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T17:55:06Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8620689655172414,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69155",
"conditionId": "0x5360f524a00e2d02089ad82fe32061742c2df6ad282d44d6f91b96f23c18af7f",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.02,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.27,
"lastTradePrice": 0.09,
"bestBid": 0.09,
"bestAsk": 0.11,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T17:53:53.841233Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1300296",
"question": "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?",
"conditionId": "0x634ac8f30b4aac7e4be6c968097e4c4708f047e6641d005d3a0948c45f0912d3",
"slug": "kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-961",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "7329.4768",
"startDate": "2026-01-30T21:24:44.039Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-SWHXAR6lQmLF.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-SWHXAR6lQmLF.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.\n\nThe Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.725\", \"0.275\"]",
"volume": "157156.30668799992",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T18:44:44.876676Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T22:37:38.189985Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "May 15",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xf6392662ae9a847be5660595ff1f61ae519ae015a4ef20ce5a437f8366ae28bd",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 157156.30668799992,
"liquidityNum": 7329.4768,
"endDateIso": "2026-05-15",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-30",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 750.6688270000001,
"volume1wk": 11734.976281,
"volume1mo": 95504.401325,
"volume1yr": 157156.30668800004,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"31520369979138544760010902223025002843378100546010259446571643231338862366184\", \"39601666783449940814931879028937430223354491091963721085082577598497319736011\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 750.6688270000001,
"volume1wkClob": 11734.976281,
"volume1moClob": 95504.401325,
"volume1yrClob": 157156.30668800004,
"volumeClob": 157156.30668799992,
"liquidityClob": 7329.4768,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-30T21:23:38Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9518143961927424,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69154",
"conditionId": "0x634ac8f30b4aac7e4be6c968097e4c4708f047e6641d005d3a0948c45f0912d3",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.11,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.1,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.035,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.205,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.1,
"lastTradePrice": 0.74,
"bestBid": 0.67,
"bestAsk": 0.78,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-30T21:22:25.923901Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "159",
"label": "Fed",
"slug": "fed",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:27:18.98+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:27:18.986Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:21.975063Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "President Trump formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, ahead of Powell's term expiration on May 15. The nomination faces a key hurdle in the Senate Banking Committee, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has placed a hold pending resolution of a DOJ investigation into Powell, stalling progress despite broad GOP support. Recent developments include a scheduled confirmation hearing in mid-April, potentially unlocking a floor vote if the probe concludes or Tillis relents. Traders weigh Senate dynamics, historical confirmation timelines for Fed nominees (typically 2-4 months), and risks of an acting chair scenario amid economic pressures, with Warsh viewed as a hawkish pick favoring tighter policy.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:34:08.288Z"
}
}- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Vol 157.2KLiq 7.3KEnd May 15, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Vol 304.2KLiq 25.3KEnd May 15, 2026OpenOrder book