Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15

Volume

461.4K

24h volume

1.1K

1w volume

25.1K

Open interest

79.9K

Liquidity

33.3K

Liquidity CLOB

33.3K

Start

Jan 30, 2026

End

May 15, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 30, 2026

Event ID

193773

Slug

kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15

Markets

2

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "President Trump formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, ahead of Powell's term expiration on May 15. The nomination faces a key hurdle in the Senate Banking Committee, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has placed a hold pending resolution of a DOJ investigation into Powell, stalling progress despite broad GOP support. Recent developments include a scheduled confirmation hearing in mid-April, potentially unlocking a floor vote if the probe concludes or Tillis relents. Traders weigh Senate dynamics, historical confirmation timelines for Fed nominees (typically 2-4 months), and risks of an acting chair scenario amid economic pressures, with Warsh viewed as a hawkish pick favoring tighter policy.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:34:08.288Z"
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