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March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ticker
march-2026-temperature-increase-c
Volume
431.7K
Open interest
95.5K
Liquidity
—
Start
Feb 28, 2026
End
Apr 10, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 28, 2026
Event ID
235047
Slug
march-2026-temperature-increase-c
Markets
6
Raw event data
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"slug": "march-2026-temperature-increase-c",
"title": "March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)",
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"creationDate": "2026-02-28T00:23:39.399667Z",
"endDate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
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"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
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"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
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"updatedAt": "2026-04-10T15:30:44.739088Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-09 18:58:53+00",
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"endDate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T00:19:59.147996Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
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"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
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"active": true,
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"closedTime": "2026-04-09 18:58:53+00",
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"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?",
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"endDate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T00:20:24.989431Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
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"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Mar\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
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"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?",
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"endDate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-02-28T00:20:27.325383Z",
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"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Mar\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
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"active": true,
"closed": true,
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"context_description": "NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.",
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}- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?Vol 61.1KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?Vol 103.0KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?Vol 84.9KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?Vol 67.8KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?Vol 60.5KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?Vol 54.3KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed