Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

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    "context_description": "Escalating US-Iran tensions dominate trader sentiment, with President Trump's April 6 news conference reiterating threats to bomb Iranian infrastructure and a \"final\" deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz, following recent US-Israel strikes on civilian targets. These developments, amid Iran's March 10 missile barrage on Israel, have pushed \"No\" shares to 63.5% implied probability, as markets price higher risks of direct US invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse—explicit triggers. Earlier 2026 shocks like potential leadership changes have already resolved monthly analogs to \"No,\" while upcoming 2026 midterms raise odds of Republican Senate supermajority. Bitcoin stability around $68,000 avoids extremes, but geopolitical flashpoints sustain expectations of at least one trigger before year-end.",
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