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Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ticker
nothing-ever-happens-2026
Volume
490.2K
24h volume
2.1K
1w volume
39.0K
Open interest
71.2K
Liquidity
54.4K
Liquidity CLOB
54.4K
Start
Jan 6, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 6, 2026
Event ID
131764
Slug
nothing-ever-happens-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"slug": "nothing-ever-happens-2026",
"title": "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026",
"description": "This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-06T22:49:59.524076Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-06T22:49:59.524073Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nothing-ever-happens-july-lwg0Ik2C_PNx.png",
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"active": true,
"closed": false,
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"liquidity": 54417.1027,
"volume": 490179.2897099984,
"openInterest": 71181.392385,
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"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T05:05:57.74527Z",
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"markets": [
{
"id": "1060714",
"question": "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026",
"conditionId": "0xa090ae1a88ca96bcae7523a65a96425ed53616709be75cb69a0df144f718931e",
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"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "54886.1127",
"startDate": "2026-01-06T22:48:20.133351Z",
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"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nothing-ever-happens-july-lwg0Ik2C_PNx.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"createdAt": "2025-12-29T22:24:49.76264Z",
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{
"id": "10069",
"ticker": "nothing-ever-happens",
"slug": "nothing-ever-happens",
"title": "Nothing Ever Happens",
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"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "https://paycheck.in/images/DLF_IPL_Logo.jpg/@@images/image.jpeg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-negative-approval-before-march-1qIERzlB6HpB.jpg",
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"createdAt": "2025-04-25T21:56:40.273468Z",
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"tags": [
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"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
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{
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"label": "Parlays",
"slug": "parlays",
"createdAt": "2024-11-27T20:28:32.874197Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:46.71774Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
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{
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"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57.5% implied probability for \"Yes,\" betting that none of the specified triggers—President Trump exiting office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, U.S. invasion of Iran, or collapse of the Iranian regime—will occur by December 31, 2026. This positioning stems from sustained geopolitical stability through early April 2026, with U.S.-Iran frictions over Strait of Hormuz tolls and supply disruptions since late February failing to escalate into military invasion or regime change, per recent diplomatic reporting. No leadership shifts in Washington or Beijing, alongside calm in the Taiwan Strait, reinforce the leading odds despite lingering tail risks from midterm elections, potential sanctions, or diplomatic breakdowns later in the year.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T04:49:36.869Z"
}
}- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Vol 490.2KLiq 54.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book