
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ticker
nothing-ever-happens-2026
Volume
450.9K
24h volume
297
1w volume
10.4K
Open interest
44.9K
Liquidity
58.0K
Liquidity CLOB
58.0K
Start
Jan 6, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 6, 2026
Event ID
131764
Slug
nothing-ever-happens-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"id": "10069",
"ticker": "nothing-ever-happens",
"slug": "nothing-ever-happens",
"title": "Nothing Ever Happens",
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"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
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{
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"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 63.5% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting expectations that at least one triggering event—such as a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority post-midterms, U.S. invasion of Iran, Bitcoin price extremes, or Russia invading a NATO country—will occur by year-end. Recent U.S.-Iran tensions escalated after a downed pilot incident and airman rescue in early April, with President Trump vowing action against leakers, boosting odds on military escalation. Primaries for competitive 2026 midterm races are underway in key states, where polling shows GOP paths to supermajority control amid incumbency advantages and swing district battles. Ongoing Ukraine conflict and Taiwan Strait frictions sustain geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin volatility keeps financial triggers viable.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:20:07.560Z"
}
}- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Vol 450.9KLiq 57.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book