Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf

Ticker

nothing-ever-happens-2026

Volume

450.9K

24h volume

297

1w volume

10.4K

Open interest

44.9K

Liquidity

58.0K

Liquidity CLOB

58.0K

Start

Jan 6, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 6, 2026

Event ID

131764

Slug

nothing-ever-happens-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "slug": "nothing-ever-happens-2026",
  "title": "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-06T22:49:59.524076Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-06T22:49:59.524073Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "id": "1060714",
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      "id": "10069",
      "ticker": "nothing-ever-happens",
      "slug": "nothing-ever-happens",
      "title": "Nothing Ever Happens",
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      "image": "https://paycheck.in/images/DLF_IPL_Logo.jpg/@@images/image.jpeg",
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      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
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    {
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      "label": "Politics",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 63.5% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting expectations that at least one triggering event—such as a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority post-midterms, U.S. invasion of Iran, Bitcoin price extremes, or Russia invading a NATO country—will occur by year-end. Recent U.S.-Iran tensions escalated after a downed pilot incident and airman rescue in early April, with President Trump vowing action against leakers, boosting odds on military escalation. Primaries for competitive 2026 midterm races are underway in key states, where polling shows GOP paths to supermajority control amid incumbency advantages and swing district battles. Ongoing Ukraine conflict and Taiwan Strait frictions sustain geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin volatility keeps financial triggers viable.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:20:07.560Z"
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}