Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

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    "context_description": "Vladimir Putin's constitutionally reset term as Russia's president extends firmly to 2030 following his 2024 re-election, anchoring trader consensus at 90.5% against his departure by year-end amid no verified health crises, elite defections, or institutional challenges. Recent diplomatic engagements, including April 13 talks with Indonesia, affirm his active leadership and dispel late-March rumors of Kremlin absences fueled by a propagandist's public break and internet blackouts. Ongoing Ukraine conflict stabilization efforts and lack of successor signals reinforce elite stability, though low-probability scenarios like sudden health events or coup attempts could shift odds before resolution. Historical patterns show entrenched autocrats rarely exit prematurely without major catalysts.",
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