Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability that Vladimir Putin will remain President of Russia through December 31, 2026, driven by his current six-year term—secured in the March 2024 election and extending to 2030 under 2020 constitutional amendments resetting term limits—and unchallenged control over state institutions, security forces, and media. No verified health issues, elite defections, or coup attempts have emerged in the past 30 days; mid-March criticism from Kremlin insider Ilya Remeslo urging resignation sparked fleeting speculation but quickly faded amid Putin's continued public appearances, including recent World War II commemorations. The Ukraine conflict's protracted stalemate reinforces regime stability rather than upheaval, with no scheduled elections or succession triggers until 2030 barring unforeseen crises like sudden illness or internal revolt.",
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