
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027
Volume
14.1M
24h volume
163.9K
1w volume
1.2M
Open interest
5.1M
Liquidity
454.6K
Liquidity CLOB
454.6K
Start
Jul 24, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 24, 2025
Event ID
34050
Slug
russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Ongoing Russian and Ukrainian military actions, including mutual accusations of hundreds of ceasefire violations during the recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 10-12, underscore persistent distrust and active frontline fighting that drives trader consensus toward a 70.5% implied probability of no comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. Both sides conducted a prisoner swap of 175 servicemen ahead of the holiday, but reports of Russian advances near Hulyaipole and Ukrainian counteractions in the southeast signal continued escalation rather than de-escalation. Earlier U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva stalled in February over territorial concessions and security guarantees, with Kremlin statements emphasizing demands for a full peace deal beyond temporary halts, leaving diplomats with few near-term catalysts amid unresolved core disputes.",
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