Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a 76% chance against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by recent escalations and diplomatic stalls amid ongoing military actions. Just hours ago, Ukraine relayed a mutual energy infrastructure truce proposal via US mediators for the upcoming Easter holiday (April 12), but the Kremlin stated peace talks are paused as US focus shifts, echoing Russia's cool response to prior Easter offers with intensified drone barrages and strikes killing civilians. Over the past week, Ukrainian drone hits on Russian refineries and Pokrovsk facilities underscore mutual attacks, while trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks were twice postponed without breakthroughs. Russian advances persist despite sanctions pressure, with incompatible demands—Russia's territorial aims versus Ukraine's refusal to cede land—cementing low prospects absent major de-escalation signals.",
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