Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a 76% chance against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, driven by stalled US-brokered peace talks now on a Kremlin-described \"situational pause\" amid Washington's shift to Middle East conflicts, with no breakthroughs since February Geneva meetings. Recent military escalation reinforces this view: Ukrainian forces intensified long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and Novorossiysk port as of April 6, while Russia claimed full Luhansk control on April 1 but recorded no frontline gains in March for the first time in over two years. Zelenskyy's conditional Easter truce proposal awaits Moscow's response, but sustained airstrikes and diplomatic deadlock highlight entrenched positions barring near-term de-escalation.",
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