
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Ticker
scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026
Volume
935.9K
24h volume
122
1w volume
1.5K
Open interest
6.5K
Liquidity
25.2K
Liquidity CLOB
25.2K
Start
Jul 16, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 16, 2025
Event ID
32565
Slug
scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026
Markets
2
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"context_description": "The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty marked a pivotal win for prediction market platforms, holding that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempting New Jersey's gambling laws via field and conflict preemption. This affirmed a district court injunction allowing Kalshi to offer such contracts during litigation, contrasting prior district rulings favoring states like Ohio. With over 20 related lawsuits ongoing, including CFTC actions against states and pending Ninth Circuit oral arguments on April 16 in similar cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, a potential circuit split looms, raising prospects for state certiorari petitions to SCOTUS. Traders monitor en banc rehearing requests (due late May) and SCOTUS conferences, as no cert grants have occurred yet ahead of the July 31 deadline.",
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