
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Ticker
scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026
Volume
975.6K
24h volume
44
1w volume
306
Open interest
3.8K
Liquidity
2.1K
Liquidity CLOB
2.1K
Start
Jul 16, 2025
End
Jan 1, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 16, 2025
Event ID
32565
Slug
scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Ongoing litigation in multiple federal circuits over whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under CFTC oversight or fall under state gambling authority continues to shape trader views on Supreme Court review. The Third Circuit has affirmed exclusive CFTC jurisdiction in a divided ruling, while the Ninth Circuit heard consolidated appeals from Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com in April 2026 with a decision still pending; the Fourth Circuit case adds further uncertainty. A resulting circuit split, combined with amicus participation from over thirty states emphasizing federalism concerns, would heighten prospects for certiorari, though no petition has reached the Court as of late August 2026. Traders weigh the timeline for lower-court resolutions and any petitions against historical reluctance to grant review absent clear division or broad state opposition.",
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}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
Robinhood Markets Inc.
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
Coinbase Global Inc.
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
CME Group
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
Intercontinental Exchange
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
Cboe Global Markets
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
Interactive Brokers
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
Charles Schwab Corporation
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
Nasdaq, Inc.
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
MarketAxess Holdings Inc.
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
S&P Global Inc.
Rules for event contracts can affect exchange volumes, retail trading products, compliance costs, and adjacent crypto or brokerage demand.
NVIDIA Corporation
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
Broadcom Inc.
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.