Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Start: 2026-03-09T18:03:42.861804Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Featured

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30

Volume

3.0M

24h volume

168.7K

1w volume

1.4M

Open interest

1.1M

Liquidity

197.3K

Liquidity CLOB

197.3K

Start

Mar 9, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 9, 2026

Event ID

256854

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30

Markets

Tags

Economy ships Iran China Geopolitics Oil U.S. x Iran transit Hormuz Strait of Hormuz Macro Geopolitics

Raw event data

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  "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30",
  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?",
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      "ticker": "hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal",
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      "title": "Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal",
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    {
      "id": "262",
      "label": "Strait of Hormuz",
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      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting persistent disruptions from the 2026 US-Iran-Israel war that collapsed daily vessel transits from a pre-crisis average of 138 to 10-21 recently, despite a weekend uptick to 21 ships—the highest since late February attacks began. Selective Iranian approvals (e.g., 15 vessels per 24 hours per state media) and ongoing risks, including 26 incidents since late February, have sustained 85-95% volume suppression, diverting over 34,000 routes and spiking insurance premiums. With just 24 days to resolution, traders anticipate prolonged constraints absent de-escalation, prioritizing geopolitical stability over gradual recovery signals.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T17:32:50.216Z"
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Vol 3.0MLiq 190.7KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book

Overview

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30

Volume

3.0M

24h volume

168.7K

1w volume

1.4M

Open interest

1.1M

Liquidity

197.3K

Liquidity CLOB

197.3K

Start

Mar 9, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 9, 2026

Event ID

256854

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30

Markets

Raw event data

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  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?",
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