Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Featured

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30

Volume

3.1M

24h volume

193.8K

1w volume

1.5M

Open interest

1.1M

Liquidity

165.3K

Liquidity CLOB

165.3K

Start

Mar 9, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 9, 2026

Event ID

256854

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

EconomyshipsIranChinaGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IrantransitHormuzStrait of HormuzMacro Geopolitics
Raw event data
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April's end, driven by Iran's ongoing de facto blockade amid the US-Israel-Iran war that slashed daily transits from pre-conflict norms of over 100 vessels to an 80-90% collapse, with only 11-21 ships passing in recent days despite a modest uptick to the highest weekly levels since early March. This persistent chokepoint disruption—handling 20% of global oil flows—has stranded 150+ tankers, spiked war-risk insurance premia, and fueled Brent crude volatility above $100/barrel, reflecting geopolitical risk premia baked into energy markets. Key catalysts include potential US military escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs, but no imminent resolution signals normalization before the April 30 deadline.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T20:47:15.352Z"
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