
Prediction market · Polymarket
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes statewide. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Ticker
tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner
Volume
319.4K
24h volume
5.1K
1w volume
47.3K
Open interest
44.5K
Liquidity
142.1K
Liquidity CLOB
142.1K
Start
Dec 23, 2025
End
Apr 23, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 23, 2025
Event ID
119296
Slug
tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner
Markets
38
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"context_description": "Recent pre-poll surveys from early April, including Lok Poll (181-189 seats for DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 40.1% vote share) and Poll Tracker (172-178 seats at 42.7%), have solidified trader consensus behind the incumbent DMK alliance ahead of the April 23 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election, attributing strength to popular welfare schemes like women's cash transfers and free bus travel resonating in rural areas. AIADMK's NDA alliance trails due to internal divisions and cadre weakness, projected at 38-52 seats, while actor Vijay's solo TVK bid fragments opposition votes among youth (19-24% share but few seats). Final candidate lists finalized early April, with results due May 4; late scandals or turnout shifts could alter closely watched dynamics.",
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