
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
trump-out-as-president-before-2027
Volume
6.9M
24h volume
59.1K
1w volume
684.5K
Open interest
2.7M
Liquidity
462.1K
Liquidity CLOB
462.1K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73969
Slug
trump-out-as-president-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "President Trump's position remains secure amid partisan calls for his removal, with trader consensus reflecting an 83.5% implied probability that he will serve beyond 2026, buoyed by Republican majorities in Congress blocking impeachment advances. Recent Democratic resolutions, including articles filed last week over Iran threats and 25th Amendment invocations citing health concerns, have stalled without bipartisan support or action from Vice President Vance. No official health disclosures or resignation signals have emerged, aligning with historical precedents where prior impeachments failed in the Senate. Midterm elections in November 2026 loom as a potential shift, but resolution before January 1, 2027, limits near-term risks absent a major scandal or crisis.",
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