
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
trump-out-as-president-before-2027
Volume
6.3M
24h volume
83.1K
1w volume
827.4K
Open interest
2.6M
Liquidity
519.0K
Liquidity CLOB
519.0K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73969
Slug
trump-out-as-president-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trump's robust position in a Republican-controlled Senate, requiring a two-thirds supermajority for impeachment conviction and removal, underpins the 84.5% implied probability on No, reflecting trader consensus that early exit via resignation, 25th Amendment invocation, incapacity, or ouster remains improbable before 2027. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict—including U.S. airstrikes, failed war powers resolutions, and Democratic criticism of executive overreach—has lowered approval ratings to 2026 lows and spiked impeachment odds on related markets to around 70%, driven by gas price surges and constitutional challenges. However, no House impeachment proceedings have advanced, and GOP midterm prospects in November 2026 limit near-term risks, with no verified health concerns or withdrawal signals emerging in the past month.",
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